BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card at Australia. DraftKings changed up their competitions somewhat and I enjoy the new choice of contests and prizes. The main GPP is now a $10 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st place. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at that $30k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good quantity of drama into money games.
Cash Game play of the week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I’m really not loving this slate for cash games, and I was just going to decide on the main occasion stack for my money game play of the week. But, I will see the major event only scoring ~100 total points and once I am stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the stack and I think Shane Young creates a fantastic money game play. I don’t know how high of a ceiling he has since I do think this struggle goes 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting finished. I think he’s a top floor because this fight should go all 3 rounds, but I presume he is the better fighter anyplace and that I see him winning this fight with a combination of striking and wrestling. I really do think he has 100-point upside into a conclusion, and I think he can complete this battle. But I feel like he’s a secure play for 80+ and that is why he’s my cash game play of this week rather than my GPP play. GPP play of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only way Kang loses this battle is by getting KO’d. He must be the far superior fighter around the mat, and I think he can hang on the toes too. I expect him to look for takedowns early and often, and Ishihara does not have any ground game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does have hefty power in his hands I believe Kang has a floor of 0 things, but this is exactly why he’s my GPP drama of the week and not my money game play of this week. In cash, I wish to lock in higher floors and that’s not what we have here. I like this more for GPPs because when he loses $9.4k it won’t matter how many things he’s, we wouldn’t be cashing. In cash games, we could still come off with a profit if he dropped a determination at the price and still scored 30-40 points, we would just have to hit our other areas. We don’t need 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 there because he has 100+ upside since he is going to be the fighter wanting to grapple and that I could see him becoming numerous takedowns as well as a submission. I think he has a 1st or 2nd round submission and I don’t expect for him to stand too long using Ishihara. I believe Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot from a big name who could be popular.
Underdog play of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I am actually picking Whittaker to win this particular fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this struggle to remain standing for as long as it continues. Personally, I see this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that’s the case, then I think Gastelum has the maximum floor of the underdogs because he’ll have 5 rounds to work with and he’ll land a reasonable amount of shots. I also believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that might not place him on the $30k lineup. In case Kelvin wins, if it be by KO or decision, he’ll almost surely be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3additional salary. That is why he is my underdog play of the week.
Fade of the week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must stay on brand with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of the week. I have chosen him my fade each time he has fought so that I am going to roll with it again. The design Alvey brings to the table is simply not beneficial for DraftKings. The only way Alvey can possibly score tremendously is by getting a win. He fails to strike a high enough speed to score highly at a decision and that he won’t be heading for any takedowns. Even if he receives a conclusion win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that may not be adequate to acquire a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x from a fighter once I roll them and together with his $7.9k price label, so I need at least 79 DK points. I really don’t see that happening and that’s the reason he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I am 54-34 to get +177.13u (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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